(Xinhua/XIE E)
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its world growth forecasts on Tuesday for 2025 to 2.8 %, a sharp drop of 0.5 percentage points compared to its January projection, according to the last update of the global economy (PEM).
“Since the publication of the January update of the PEM, a series of new tariff measures taken by the United States and countermeasures decreed by the trade partners have been announced and implemented, leading on April 2 to American customs rights affecting almost all of the countries of the world and carrying the actual customs duties at levels never reached for a century,” said PEM.
Noting that customs duties alone constitute a “major negative shock”, the IMF estimated that “unpredictability” with which these measures have been applied has a negative impact on economic activity and perspectives.
“The global economic system in which most countries have worked in the past 80 years is being reset, bringing the world into a new era. The existing rules are questioned while news must still emerge,” said Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, chief economist of the IMF, at a press conference.
According to reference forecasts which incorporate information dated April 4, global growth should fall to 2.8 % in 2025 and 3 % in 2026, against 3.3 % for these two years in the January update of PEM, and below the historical average (2000-2019) of 3.7 %, according to the last edition of PEM.
The report also notes that the intensification of the risk of deterioration dominates the perspectives. “The intensification of the trade war and even greater uncertainty in terms of commercial policy could further reduce growth in the short and long -term,” said the report.
