Original title: International gold prices maintain strong performance
The World Gold Association recently released the “Global Gold Demand Trend Report” for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024, showing that the total annual global gold demand reached 4,974 tons, a record high. Among them, the total gold demand in the fourth quarter of 2024 was 1,297 tons, a slight increase of 1% year-on-year, also setting a new quarterly demand high.
Against the backdrop of rising gold demand, international gold prices have performed strongly since the beginning of the year and have achieved a continuous increase of five consecutive weeks. The prices of spot gold and COMEX gold have both increased by more than 8%, breaking through historical highs many times. On January 31, London spot gold broke through $2,800/ounce for the first time; on February 5, the price of COMEX gold reached the $2,900/ounce mark for the first time.
In the view of industry insiders, since the beginning of this year, due to the continued tension in the global geopolitical situation, increasing uncertainty in the Federal Reserve’s policy, and the increase in holdings of gold by central banks in many countries, the high demand for gold in the market has continued, driving the rise of international gold prices.
“In general, the recent rise in global uncertainty and inflation expectations have driven gold prices to rise.” The macro team of Zhejiang Merchants Futures said that the increase in tariffs in the United States has prompted a sharp increase in market capital risk aversion sentiment, and demand for safe assets such as gold with risk aversion attributes has increased.
Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund, believes that on the one hand, global geopolitics and other factors have pushed up the market’s risk aversion sentiment, thereby driving the rise of gold prices; on the other hand, the logic of long-term rise in international gold prices is that there are more and more US dollars, that is, the Federal Reserve The price of gold priced in the US dollar has been on a long-term upward trend by increasing the money supply.
From the perspective of the domestic market, the China Gold Association previously released data showing that in 2024, in the face of fluctuations in gold prices, my country’s gold market showed a rapid development momentum, and the trading volume and trading volume of the gold market increased significantly. The cumulative trading volume of all gold varieties on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 62,300 tons, a year-on-year increase of 49.9%, and the bilateral transaction volume of 34.65 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 86.65%; the cumulative trading volume of all gold varieties on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 182,200 tons, a year-on-year increase of 182,200 tons, a year-on-year increase of 46.71%, the transaction volume was 83.96 trillion yuan, an increase of 75.81% year-on-year.
On the consumer side, gold prices continue to be at high levels, which has suppressed the demand for gold jewelry to a certain extent. In 2024, my country’s gold consumption was 985.31 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.58%. Among them, gold jewelry was 532.02 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 24.69%; gold bars and gold coins were 373.13 tons, a year-on-year increase of 24.54%. A relevant official from the China Gold Association said that in 2024, against the backdrop of overall weak gold and jewelry consumption and a decline in inventory turnover, gold and jewelry companies timely adjust their production and operation strategies to promote product innovation, and the rise of concept gold jewelry such as ancient methods and national trends. Due to the turmoil in the international situation and intensified conflicts, the gold safe-haven value preservation attributes have become prominent, and gold bar sales have increased significantly.
Looking ahead, global demand for gold is expected to rise further. The World Gold Council report predicts that global central banks’ demand for gold purchases will still dominate in 2025, and the investment demand for gold ETFs will also become an important force supporting gold demand. At the same time, as high gold prices and slow economic growth have suppressed consumers’ purchasing power, demand for gold jewelry may continue to weaken. Geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty may support the demand for gold as a tool for wealth preservation and hedging.
Regarding international gold prices, market institutions generally believe that there is still a possibility of further rise in the long run. Goldman Sachs research report shows that it maintains its forecast that gold prices will reach $3,000 per ounce in the second quarter of 2026, but if the uncertainty of US tariffs subsides and market positions tend to normal, gold prices will temporarily fall. The forecast is based on the expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, the central bank will continue to purchase gold and the holdings of gold ETFs will gradually increase, thus supporting the gold price.
Wang Hongying, director of the China (Hong Kong) Financial Derivatives Investment Research Institute, said that gold prices are expected to maintain a volatile upward trend. “In view of the current high gold price and obvious market fluctuations, gold consumption investment should be cautious. Investors are advised to purchase gold by buying on dips, and buy gold bars, gold ETFs and other products as much as possible, and at the same time, be cautious when purchasing gold bars, gold ETFs and other products. Enter leveraged products to control risks and obtain stable returns.”
(Ma Chunyang)
[Editor in charge: Xu Ziming]
